Most merchants underestimate chargeback cost by 40–60%because they only count the disputed amount and the processor fee. The real bill also includes lost goods (you shipped them), the operational hours to respond, and the opportunity cost of not being able to fight when you're over the network chargeback-rate threshold. This calculator adds all of that up.
Your business
Your numbers
How the calculator works
The calculator estimates total monthly chargeback cost as:
Total cost = disputes × (AOV + chargeback fee + goods cost + ops cost)
Recovered = disputes × win rate × (AOV + refundable fee)
Net loss = Total cost − Recovered
Defaults reflect Aurai's book-average: 30% goods cost on AOV, $25 ops cost per dispute (roughly 30 min of a ops person's time), and processor-specific chargeback fees. Adjust any of them to match your business.
The "recovered" row reflects a 75% win rate (Aurai's average). On Stripe and Shopify, the chargeback fee is refunded on wins; on PayPal it isn't — the calculator handles that automatically.
Processor fee reference
| Processor | Chargeback fee | Refundable on win? | Response window |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stripe | $15 (US) | Yes | Per evidence_details.due_by (network limit + acquirer buffer) |
| Shopify Payments | $15 (US) | Yes | 7–21 days per admin dispute detail |
| PayPal | $20 (US) | No | 10 days for buyer disputes, 20 days for card-network chargebacks |
| Braintree (card network) | $15 (US) | Yes | Per replyByDate on the dispute object |
Where the 75% figure comes from
75% is Aurai's book-wide win rate on represented disputes. Broken out by processor:
Stripe: ~72%
Stripe's dispute API is well-instrumented and CE 3.0-compatible. The 8 percentage-point gap to Shopify is mostly reason-code mix.
Shopify: ~78%
Shopify Payments disputes skew physical-goods with strong delivery proof — the highest-conversion segment.
PayPal: ~52%
PayPal is structurally harder — Buyer Protection cases bypass card-network rules entirely, and evidence weighting is stricter.
Industry benchmarks per public sources (MRC Global Fraud Survey 2024, Chargebacks911 Annual Report 2025) put the industry-wide represented-dispute win rate at 40–65%. Without automation, most merchants without dedicated ops teams win 15–30%, per the same surveys.
Frequently asked questions
What's the true cost of a chargeback?
Disputed amount + processor fee + lost goods + operational time. On a $100 order that's typically ~$170 total — roughly 1.7× the original transaction. The calculator adds all of that up.
How much is the Stripe chargeback fee?
$15 per dispute (US), refundable if you win.
How much is the PayPal chargeback fee?
$20 per dispute (US), non-refundable — PayPal keeps it even if you win the dispute.
What win rate should I plug in for my own numbers?
If you have no automation and no dedicated ops team, start at 15–20%. If you have a proper ops team responding with delivery proof, 40–55%. With Aurai, our book-wide average is 75%.
Is this calculator saved anywhere?
No. The calculator runs entirely in your browser — no data leaves your device. No signup, no tracking pixel on inputs.
Processor fees reflect public schedules as of July 2026 and may change; check the current pricing on each processor before budgeting. Stripe, PayPal, Shopify, and Braintree are trademarks of their respective owners. Aurai is independent and not endorsed by any of them. Win-rate figures reflect Aurai's own book and industry surveys — your results will vary.