Public industry sources put well-represented ecommerce disputes at roughly 40–65% wins, but the spread is wide. Win rates depend far more on the reason code and the evidence you can produce than on the processor. Strong delivery proof, 3-D Secure authentication, and Compelling Evidence 3.0 qualification where it applies are the biggest levers; weak or missing evidence is usually a concede. Treat any single headline number, including a vendor's, as indicative.
Overall win rates
Industry range: about 40–65% for well-represented ecommerce disputes, according to public sources such as the MRC Global Fraud Survey and Chargebacks911. Individual results vary widely with reason code, evidence quality, and issuer.
Processors differ too: PayPal gives reviewers more discretion and Buyer Protection tilts toward the consumer, so PayPal cases are generally harder than card-network disputes.
By reason code
Win likelihood tracks the evidence you can produce, not just the code:
| Reason code | What usually carries the case | When to concede |
|---|---|---|
| Visa 13.1 (goods not received) | Delivery proof to the billing or shipping address | No delivery or access evidence |
| Visa 10.4 (fraud, card-absent) | 3-D Secure authentication; Compelling Evidence 3.0 where eligible | No authentication and no prior undisputed transactions |
| Visa 13.2 (cancelled recurring) | A clear cancellation flow and terms accepted at purchase | A cancellation request the merchant never honored |
What actually moves outcomes
Levers that most consistently help:
- Compelling Evidence 3.0 qualification — prior undisputed transactions with matching identifiers can strengthen qualifying Visa fraud disputes.
- 3-D Secure authentication — shifts liability on many fraud disputes.
- Clear delivery and access evidence — timestamped and matched to the billing or shipping address.
- Clear policies and billing descriptors — fewer "not recognized" and cancellation disputes in the first place.
- Responding on time — no response is an automatic loss.
Frequently asked questions
What is a realistic chargeback win rate?
Public industry sources put well-represented ecommerce disputes at roughly 40–65%. Your result depends on the reason code, your evidence, and the issuer. No vendor can guarantee an outcome.
What is the highest-leverage change I can make?
Collect strong evidence at the time of the order — authentication results, matching identifiers on prior orders, and delivery or access proof — and respond before the deadline.
Post reflects public documentation and industry surveys as of the publish date. Win rates and other figures are indicative ranges, not guarantees and not Aurai results; outcomes vary by merchant, evidence, and issuer. Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Discover, Stripe, PayPal, and Shopify are trademarks of their respective owners; Aurai is independent and not endorsed by any of them. Network rules change — always verify current official rules before acting on any specific tactic.