Aurai's 2026 average win rate is 75% — 72% on Stripe, 78% on Shopify Payments, 52% on PayPal. Broken down by reason code: Visa 13.1 with CE 3.0 wins 85–95%; Visa 10.4 with 3DS wins 85–95%; Visa 13.2 with clear cancellation UX wins 70–85%. Public MRC / Chargebacks911 benchmarks put industry-wide represented wins at 40–65%; without automation most merchants win 15–30%.
Overall win rate
Aurai book-wide average: 75% across all represented disputes.
By processor:
- Stripe: 72%
- Shopify Payments: 78%
- PayPal: 52%
Shopify is highest because Shopify merchants skew physical-goods with strong delivery proof. PayPal is lowest because Buyer Protection cases bypass card-network rules and PayPal reviewer discretion is more variable.
Industry benchmarks (MRC 2024, Chargebacks911 2025):
- Well-represented disputes: 40–65% industry-wide
- No automation, no dedicated ops: 15–30%
- With ML-assisted representment: 55–70%
Aurai's 75% reflects the combined benefit of automated evidence assembly + CE 3.0 qualification checks + reason-code-specific playbooks.
By reason code
Aurai's 2026 win rates by reason code and evidence tier:
| Reason code | Best-case | Baseline | Concede |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa 13.1 (goods not received) | 85–95% (with CE 3.0) | 60–80% (physical, delivery proof) | <10% (no evidence) |
| Visa 10.4 (CNP fraud) | 85–95% (with 3DS) | 40–55% (AVS + delivery, no 3DS) | <5% (no evidence) |
| Visa 13.2 (cancelled recurring) | 70–85% (clear UX) | 35–55% (ambiguous UX) | <15% (dark pattern) |
| Visa 13.3 (defective) | 55–75% (no return attempt + policy) | 30–50% (return attempted) | <20% (legitimate defect) |
| Visa 13.6 (credit not processed) | 90–95% (credit processed) | 55–75% (denied per policy) | 0% (credit owed) |
| Mastercard 4837 | 80–92% (with SecureCode) | 35–55% (no 3DS) | <10% |
| Amex F29 | 85–92% (with SafeKey) | 30–50% (no SafeKey) | <15% |
By vertical
Win rates by merchant vertical (Aurai book):
- DTC apparel: 68%
- Electronics: 76%
- SaaS: 62% (subscription disputes drag)
- Digital goods (non-SaaS): 55%
- Food/beverage: 71%
- Beauty/cosmetics: 74%
- Home goods: 79%
- Travel/hospitality: 58%
Digital goods and travel are lowest because access proof / cancellation policies are harder to document. Home goods and electronics are highest because they skew physical + tracked + AVS-matched.
What actually moves outcomes
Levers ranked by impact on win rate:
- CE 3.0 qualification — +15–40 pts on qualifying Visa disputes.
- 3DS authentication — +30–50 pts on fraud disputes.
- SafeKey (Amex) — +40–50 pts on Amex F29.
- Delivery proof to AVS — +25–40 pts on 13.1/C08/RG.
- [Clear cancellation UX](/blog/cancellation-ux-ftc-click-to-cancel) — +30–40 pts on 13.2/C28.
- Reason-code-specific evidence — +10–20 pts vs generic packets.
- [3-sentence cover narrative](/blog/chargeback-rebuttal-templates) — +5–10 pts vs kitchen-sink packets.
Lever #1 (CE 3.0) is often overlooked because it requires collecting prior-transaction data systematically. But it's the single highest-leverage change.
Frequently asked questions
What's Aurai's average win rate?
75% book-wide. 72% on Stripe, 78% on Shopify Payments, 52% on PayPal.
How does that compare to industry averages?
MRC and Chargebacks911 put industry-wide represented wins at 40–65%. Without automation, most merchants win 15–30%.
What's the highest-leverage change I can make?
Systematically collect CE 3.0-qualifying data (prior transactions, matching IPs, device fingerprints). +15–40 percentage points on qualifying Visa disputes.
Post reflects public documentation, industry surveys, and Aurai's own book of disputes as of the publish date. Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Discover, Stripe, PayPal, and Shopify are trademarks of their respective owners; Aurai is independent and not endorsed by any of them. Network rules change — always verify current official rules before acting on any specific tactic.