Break-even: signature confirmation (~$3–5) pays when AOV × not-received-dispute probability × the win-rate uplift exceeds the fee. That crosses over around $150–250 AOV for typical stores — lower in porch-piracy-heavy ZIP codes and fraud-prone categories. Below the line, the fee taxes every order to prevent rare losses; above it, unsigned delivery is self-insurance you're underpricing. Adult signature (stricter, slightly costlier) is for luxury AOVs and age-regulated goods.
The break-even math
Inputs: signature fee (~$3–5), your not-received dispute rate on unsigned deliveries (typically 0.3–1% of orders, higher in dense-urban delivery areas), and the outcome delta — unsigned 'delivered' disputes win maybe 50–70% with good POD evidence; signed ones win 90%+.
Worked example at $200 AOV, 0.6% dispute rate: expected unsigned loss ≈ $200 × 0.6% × 40% loss rate ≈ $0.48/order — just below a $4 fee. At $400 AOV or 1% dispute incidence, the fee wins clearly. Run your own numbers from your KPI data — the crossover is store-specific but always computable.
Targeting, not blanketing
Signature-by-rule beats signature-by-default:
- Value threshold: orders above your computed crossover.
- Destination risk: ZIP-level delivery-loss history (your own not-received map) justifies signatures below the blanket threshold.
- Category: resale-fraud magnets and luxury sign earlier.
- First orders during peak season — the highest-dispute cohort at the highest-theft time of year.
Friction note: signatures require someone home — a real cost in missed deliveries. Offer hold-at-location as the alternative; it carries the same accountability with less friction. Aurai's dispute outcomes give you the per-segment loss data that makes the targeting rules empirical instead of guessed.
Frequently asked questions
At what order value should I require signatures?
Typically $150–250 AOV at average dispute rates — but compute your own crossover from your not-received incidence. High-theft destinations and fraud-magnet categories justify it lower.
Do signed deliveries ever lose disputes?
Rarely — a delivery signature is near-decisive evidence on not-received claims. The residual losses are signature-quality issues (illegible, wrong person), which adult-signature service reduces further.
Post reflects public documentation and industry surveys as of the publish date. Win rates and other figures are indicative ranges, not guarantees and not Aurai results; outcomes vary by merchant, evidence, and issuer. Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Discover, Stripe, PayPal, and Shopify are trademarks of their respective owners; Aurai is independent and not endorsed by any of them. Network rules change — always verify current official rules before acting on any specific tactic.